- 2026-08-10
- Posted by: Austin Pica
- Categories: Insights, Volume Analysis
The Generals’ Resurgence, Breadth Breaks the Line
August opened with a decisive counteroffensive from the generals. After weeks of rotation, hesitation, and uneven command, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 surged 5.09% and powered the market higher. The S&P 500 Index broke above resistance, pushed through June’s prior all-time high, and closed the week on stronger footing. Yet the most important development may not have been the generals’ charge alone, but the confirmation from breadth and the continued broadening beneath the surface.
The week began with force. Monday opened with 82% of Capital Weighted Dollar Volume registering as inflows on average total capital flows. Capital Weighted Volume also showed strength, with 80% of volume to the upside on average activity. Tuesday followed through with 87% of capital flows as inflows, though on lower total volume, while Capital Weighted Volume again finished near average with 86% of activity to the upside. For the week, upside volume was above average, total Capital Weighted Volume was average, and 70% of volume registered to the upside.
Capital flows were also constructive. Weekly Capital Weighted Dollar Volume finished slightly above average, with inflows above average, outflows below average, and 69% of flows moving inward. In battlefield terms, the supply lines finally sent reinforcements to the front.
Price action reflected a strong but not perfectly clean advance. Monday’s S&P 500 rally teased all-time highs. Tuesday delivered the breakout, with price pushing through resistance and closing well above June’s prior high. Wednesday struck new all-time highs but closed lower on the day. Thursday opened lower and closed on the downside of Wednesday’s range. Friday then rebounded on the open and finished near its opening level, still inside Wednesday’s range. The bulls advanced, but they did not finish with a full rout of the bears.
Among the command units, the generals clearly regained leadership. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 surged 5.09%, but still faces several resistance levels before reaching open field. The 725 level now becomes important terrain to maintain. In our recent Outlook, https://kingsviewim.com/2026/07/22/volume-analysis-2026-second-half-market-outlook/ we noted that leadership concentration can become its own risk when too much capital crowds into the same names, and the generals needed to reclaim key ground after prior weakness. That battle is now underway.
The broader ranks also advanced. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF rose 2.36% and was the only major unit other than the S&P 500 itself to make new all-time highs on the week. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF gained 3.56% and is now flirting with all time high resistance near 303. The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF advanced 1.28%, but lagged the other units and remains slightly shy of last week’s all time high watermark.
This is where the broadening theme remains important. The generals have returned, but the market is no longer dependent on them alone. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF making new highs, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF pressing resistance, and the NYSE Advance Decline Line breaking out all reinforce the idea that the campaign has moved from “And Then There Were None” toward “And Then There Were Some.” In the Outlook call, we emphasized that broader participation has been the bright spot of 2026, with more stocks joining the advance and the opportunity shifting toward wider participation rather than simply chasing yesterday’s winners.
The most notable underappreciated move this week came from breadth. The NYSE Advance Decline Line broke out to new highs. That is a major positive development for the broadening thesis. While the generals reclaimed the headlines, breadth confirmed that more of the army is participating.
The accumulated trends of both Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume surged on the week and are now pressing into resistance. Capital Weighted Dollar Volume looks stronger and is closing in on prior highs. This is encouraging because, as noted in the Outlook, volume is the fuel of the market. Price can glide for a while on momentum, but without volume confirmation, the market is flying on thinner air. This week’s improvement helps, but the next test is whether the supply lines can break through resistance and continue higher.
Cross asset action also aligned with a key Outlook theme. We emphasized the emerging yin and yang relationship between technology and energy. This week, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund surged 7.20%, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund declined -3.44%. True to form, technology advanced as energy retreated. In the Outlook, we noted that energy and technology have increasingly moved in opposite directions during 2026, with peace talks and oil weakness often coinciding with technology strength.
We have also been noting that gold and silver were approaching support, suggesting a notable move could be near. That move arrived last week, with both metals posting meaningful surges comparable to, and in silver’s case exceeding, technology. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF broke out of its June 12th range and now faces resistance near 4400. The iShares Silver Trust faces resistance between 67 and 70. Meanwhile, oil fell but rallied back near Monday’s gap down opening and held 77 support, suggesting the energy front remains bruised but not broken.
The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz backdrop remain central to this relationship. Recent reporting indicates Iran and Oman have made progress toward a possible arrangement to reopen or manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, though the U.S. opposes any framework that gives Iran control over international passage or imposes tolls. The situation remains fragile, with maritime incidents and broader regional tensions still threatening the energy front. Oil finished down on the week despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, reflecting hopes for de-escalation as well as the market’s attempt to price the next phase of the conflict. But with oil still trading above support, hope remains the right word.
In military terms, the energy front has not surrendered, but it has lost initiative. The technology generals used that opening to launch a powerful counterattack. The question now is whether this is the beginning of a sustained advance or another temporary surge from elite command while the broader army continues to reorganize.
Overall, this week was constructive. Price broke out. Capital flows improved. Upside volume strengthened. Breadth broke to new highs. The generals surged, the troops advanced, the equal weight ranks confirmed, and capital flows moved in the right direction. That is a much better field report than we have seen in recent weeks.
Still, this is not an all-clear. The generals have not yet reached open field. Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume are pressing resistance, not yet through it. Oil and energy remain volatile and are holding support under the shadow of peace. The market is improving, but the campaign still requires confirmation.
Risk Command
This week materially improved the tactical picture, but risk management remains the proper command posture. The bulls have regained momentum, and the broadening theme has strengthened, but investors should still require confirmation from Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume before assuming the advance is fully secured.
The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 must hold 725 and continue pressing through resistance. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF needs to break and hold near 303. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF and the NYSE Advance Decline Line must sustain their breakouts. Most importantly, volume and capital flows must continue rising rather than stall at resistance.
If breadth remains strong and volume trends confirm, the bulls may regain stronger command for the next phase of the secular advance. If volume fails at resistance while price continues higher, the market may again be flying on thin air.
For now, the generals have reentered the battle, the troops are advancing, and the broader ranks are confirming. The campaign has improved, but the supply lines must keep moving. In markets as in war, the objective is not to celebrate every charge, but to manage risk before it manages you and let volume confirm the next advance.
Grace and peace,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 8/10/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
