- 2026-07-20
- Posted by: kimsite
- Categories: Insights, Volume Analysis
Broadening Holds While the Generals Take Fire
The market remained under the shadow of the Iran war and the continuing contest over nuclear ambitions and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil has remained volatile as markets weigh conflict risk against the possibility that diplomacy may contain escalations.
Against that backdrop, the generals took one on the chin this past week, but the internals held up much better. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1, AKA “the generals,” fell -4.16%, absorbing the heaviest damage among the major formations. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust declined -1.54%, while the troops, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, slipped only -0.66%. The broader ranks, represented by the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, held firmer with a modest -0.43% decline. The bright spot was the brass commanders, represented by the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, which advanced 1.57%.
This is not the profile of a full battlefield collapse. It is more of a contour of rotation in motion. The generals weakened, but the troops held their line, the broader market consolidated, and the dividend brass pushed higher. In the spirit of And Then There Were None, the list of advancing units has widened, but it has not fully broken out. The campaign no longer feels like it is being led by a single elite command.
The S&P 500 stayed completely engulfed within the prior week’s range, forming an inside week. These conditions resemble a spinning top, which in Japanese candlestick analysis often suggests weakening buying momentum and growing indecision. That indecision was confirmed by S&P 500 upside Capital Weighted Volume finishing below average for the week. Overall Capital Weighted Volume was light, with 52% of S&P 500 Capital Weighted Volume to the downside and 48% to the upside.
Given the more dramatic decline in the generals, the relatively light and balanced volume readings suggest weakness in the generals was not well supplied. In battlefield terms, the generals retreated, but the bears did not bring overwhelming artillery to the advance.
The accumulated trends of both Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume stalled near resistance and continued to lag price substantially. This remains a key tactical concern. Volume has not led this advance. However, it has also not yet issued a decisive defensive signal. The supply lines are not surging, but they have not broken formation either.
Market breadth remains one of the most important pieces of the current field report. Although the NYSE Advance Decline Line did not advance on the week, it did create a new intraweek high. That reinforces the broadening theme: the broader army continues to show signs of strength even as the generals lose ground.
Technically, the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 broke below short term support near 700. The next near-term support rests near 665, with intermediate support between 650 and 625. troops held last week’s lows and retained good support near 285. Similarly, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF remained entirely inside the prior week’s range and continued to gradually consolidate gains following the July 3rd doji.
The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF was the standout. The brass commanders broke above 33 resistance intraweek, reached a new intraweek high, and closed at a new weekly high. While the generals were under fire, the brass held formation and advanced. That is a constructive sign of rotation and resilience.
On the commodity front, oil and stocks continue their yin and yang relationship. Since the Iran conflict began, oil and equities have often moved inversely. This past week, oil continued to bounce from major support near 70 on moderately high volume and is now pushing toward intermediary resistance near 88. The energy front has regrouped, but not yet broken out.
Gold and silver both fell. Gold is holding near its June lows, while silver broke beneath support. Silver’s next major support rests near 48, while gold’s next key support sits near 3900. The commodity scouts are not marching together, and no decisive shofar has sounded from that front.
Overall, the S&P 500 continues its June 19th doji pause. Neither the bulls nor the bears have taken full control of the price battlefield. Yet beneath the surface, the internals held up relatively well despite the breakdown in the generals. The belly of the market is building a stronger core, and that could prove healthy for this phase of the cycle if the broadening continues.
Risk Command
This is a market that requires respect, not complacency. The generals have weakened, but the broader ranks have not surrendered. The troops held support, the equal weight ranks consolidated, and the dividend brass advanced to new highs. That argues against an outright retreat.
However, price remains ahead of volume, and Capital Weighted Volume has not confirmed with the force one would prefer. Investors should continue to emphasize position sizing, diversification, support discipline, and confirmation through Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume before increasing exposure.
If the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 stabilizes above 665 and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF holds 285 while breadth continues to broaden, the campaign can regroup. If the generals continue to break lower and volume turns decisively defensive, risk controls should take priority.
For now, the battlefield remains contested. The generals are wounded, but the army is not broken. The objective is not to predict every skirmish, but to manage risk before it manages you, defend critical ground, and let volume confirm the next advance.
Grace and peace,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 7/20/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
