Volume Analysis | Flash Market Update – 6.29.26

CHIEF TECHNICAL ANALYST, BUFF DORMEIER, CMT^Ⓡ

The market entered the week with the Iran war still casting a long shadow over the battlefield. Peace discussions, ceasefire headlines, and renewed tension around the Strait of Hormuz continued to shape the cross-asset front. Yet despite the fog of war, the equity campaign delivered an important internal message. The headline battlefield looked bearish, but beneath the surface, the broader ranks began to show signs of renewed strength.

This week produced the largest downside Capital Weighted Volume reading since August 2nd, 2024, the period that sparked our And Then There Were None campaign. Weekly Capital Weighted Volume was the largest since the April 11th, 2025 record-setting week, with 69% of volume trading to the downside. That is a heavy artillery print from the bears.

Daily volume confirmed the pressure. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday showed 80% downside Capital Weighted Volume on average volume. Thursday, June 25th, followed with 82% downside volume on above average Capital Weighted Volume. Friday, June 26th, then produced the largest daily Capital Weighted Volume reading since the April 9th, 2025 record reversal day, though upside volume slightly edged out downside volume.

The dollar flow battlefield was even more aggressive. Weekly Capital Weighted Dollar Volume hit a new record high. Inflows were average, while capital outflows surged to a new all-time record high. For the week, 66% of capital flows moved outward. That is not merely hesitation. That is distribution pressure from large capital, suggesting heavy institutional activity.

Both accumulated Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume fish hooked decisively lower, breaking the fall of 2025 support levels. These supply lines are now nearing major and critical support. From a Volume Analysis perspective, this is the key risk zone. If these measures stabilize near support, the market may absorb the blow. If they fail, the campaign could shift from rotation to confirmed distribution.

The S&P 500, represented by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, declined -2.38%. Near-term support sits near 7225 and 7100, with 7100 also representing major support. The market still has ground to defend, but the line is no longer far away.

The generals, represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1, absorbed the heaviest damage, falling -4.60%. The generals have been the dominant command unit throughout much of the campaign, but this week they surrendered ground. When the generals retreat, the headline index looks vulnerable.

Yet this is where the field report becomes more interesting. The troops, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, advanced 1.43%. The broader ranks, represented by the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, gained 0.17%. The brass commanders, represented by the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, rose 0.72%.

In the spirit of And Then There Were None, the list of weakened units did not expand across the entire battlefield. Instead, the weakness was concentrated in the generals and the capital-weighted index. The troops advanced. The broader ranks held. The brass commanders gained. That is not a classic uniform retreat. It appears to be asset rotation.

This is the key distinction. The stock market appeared bearish on the surface, and the capital-weighted data clearly showed distribution. However, it may be a mistake to interpret capital-weighted weakness as a broad market failure. The NYSE Advance Decline Line, a key metric we have been waiting on for direction, finally broke out to new all-time highs. That is a major breadth development, a sign of improving broad health.

Breadth breaking out while the generals weaken suggests the belly of the market is gaining strength. This is a return to thebroadening theme of And Then There Were None. Leadership may be moving away from narrow mega cap command and toward a healthier advance across more troops, sectors, and market capitalizations. If sustained, this could be a bullish recipe for the next phase of the secular advance.

Cross-asset signals remain shaped by the backdrop of the Iran war and peace negotiations. Oil continued its retreat toward the next support level near 70. If 70 fails, the next support level rests near 63. The energy front has lost ground amid easing geopolitical tensions. Silver collapsed roughly 10 points, with its weekly low bouncing near 50 support. Meanwhile, gold broke below 4000, with 3875 acting as the next support level. The commodity scouts are no longer marching in defensive formation. Precious metals breaking support while oil retreats may suggest the defensive inflation and war hedge front has weakened, at least tactically.

Overall, this was a mixed and complex battlefield report. Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume delivered clear distribution warnings. Outflows surged to record levels, and the generals retreated sharply. Yet breadth broke out to new all-time highs, the troops advanced, the broader ranks held, and the brass commanders gained. The headline was pressure, but the internal story was rotation.

In the And Then There Were None framework, the generals may be losing some command, but the army is not disappearing. The campaign is shifting. The question is whether this is healthy broadening or the first stage of leadership fatigue.

Risk Command

This is not a market for complacency, but it is also not a market to judge by the generals alone. Record outflows, heavy downside Capital Weighted Volume, and broken fall 2025 support levels in accumulated volume trends demand discipline. These are serious warning shots.

At the same time, the breakout in the NYSE Advance Decline Line and relative strength in the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, and the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF argue against assuming a full battlefield collapse. The broader army may be rotating rather than retreating.

A risk management posture remains the proper command. Respect support. Manage position size. Diversify across formations. Watch whether Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume stabilize near critical support or continue to deteriorate. If the S&P 500 holds 7225 and 7100 while breadth remains strong, the bulls may regroup under broader leadership. If capital flow support fails and breadth reverses, defensive positioning should take priority.

For now, the generals are under fire, but the troops have not abandoned the field. The supply lines are damaged, but breadth is advancing. In markets as in war, the key is not to predict every battle. The key is to manage risk before it manages you, defend critical ground, and let volume confirm whether this is rotation or retreat.

Grace and peace,

BUFF DORMEIER, CMT

Updated: 6/29/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.