Volume Analysis | Flash Market Update – 6.22.26

CHIEF TECHNICAL ANALYST, BUFF DORMEIER, CMT^Ⓡ

Inflow Barrage, Generals Charge

The market entered the week under the lifting shadow of the Iran war, with investors still navigating the dust from geopolitical conflict, volatile oil, and shifting capital commitments. On the surface, the bulls received important reinforcement. The week was bracketed by powerful inflow days, including a 95% upside Capital Weighted Dollar Volume inflow day on Monday the 15th and a 93% inflow day to close the week Thursday the 18^th.

For a shortened four-day work week, capital flows were impressive. Capital inflows led outflows by a 67% to 33% margin on average volume.  Capital flows were slightly above average, which is a high level of participation given the abbreviated trading schedule. That suggests capital did not abandon the battlefield. Instead, selective reinforcements returned to the front.

Yet the price formation was less decisive. After a gap up Monday morning, the S&P 500 Index opened and closed near the same level, forming a doji star of indecision. The bulls received capital support, but price failed to deliver a decisive advance. In military terms, the ammunition arrived, but the troops did not fully take the hill.

The NYSE Advance Decline Line also closed with a doji star, but unlike the S&P 500 Index, it finished lower on the week. This is important. Breadth hesitated while price held firmer. The ranks did not break, but they did not march forward with conviction either.

The trends of Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume both fish hooked higher, suggesting the supply lines may be attempting to stabilize after recent pressure. However, both remain well below the pace of the price trend and short of all-time highs. This keeps the volume message constructive, but incomplete. Price still leads the troops, while volume and capital flows are trying to catch up.

Weekly S&P 500 Capital Weighted Volume leaned positive, with upside volume leading downside volume 6 to 10. However, the week lacked any 10% thrust days (unlike capital flows), meaning the advance did not carry the force of a decisive upside assault like capital flows demonstrated. Liquidity improved, but not with overwhelming firepower.

The field units were mixed. The generals, represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1, led the campaign with a 2.67% advance. The troops, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, gained 0.90%, continuing to show improving participation from both the front and back line ranks. The broader ranks, represented by the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, retreated a modest -0.08%, essentially holding position. Meanwhile, the dividend brass commanders, represented by the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, declined -2.92%, failing to join the rally.

This creates a familiar And Then There Were None tension. The generals advanced, the troops followed, the broader ranks held ground or retreated. The list of participating units improved from prior periods, but it did not become broadly unanimous, suggesting the strong campaign still lacks full formation confirmation.

The Iranian peace treaty remains central to the cross-asset battlefield. Oil broke below the March 13th key support level near 80 on below average volume. That is notable. In a wartime backdrop, oil’s failure at a key support line suggests the energy front is losing momentum as geopolitical risk unwinds. However, the below average crude volume keeps the breakdown from becoming a full capitulation signal. The line was breached, but not with overwhelming force. Should oil continue to fall, it could relieve inflation pressure and further support risk assets. If the breakdown proves false and energy reverses, a risk premium could quickly return to the battlefield.

Overall, this week delivered both encouragement and caution. Capital flows improved meaningfully, the generals regained command, and the troops continued to advance. Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume began to hook higher, suggesting the supply lines may be stabilizing. The S&P 500 Index ended higher but with indecision, the NYSE Advance Decline Line slipped lower, with churning in the belly of the market.

Risk Command

This was a better tactical week, but not an all-clear signal. Strong inflows are encouraging, especially during a shortened trading week, and the fishhook improvement in Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume deserves respect. However, price remains ahead of volume, breadth remains indecisive, and leadership is still uneven.

A disciplined risk management approach remains the proper command posture. Investors should avoid assuming that capital inflows alone confirm victory. Confirmation requires broader participation, stronger breadth, and continued improvement in Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume.

For now, the generals have regained momentum, the troops are still following, and the supply lines are beginning to repair. But the doji stars in price and breadth warn that the next battle has not yet been decided. In markets as in war, capital must not only arrive. It must hold the ground.

Grace and peace,

BUFF DORMEIER, CMT

Updated: 6/21/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.