Volume Analysis | Flash Market Update – 5.26.26

CHIEF TECHNICAL ANALYST, BUFF DORMEIER, CMT^Ⓡ

Sell in May & Go Away?

The “put up or shut up” campaign continued this week, and once again the bulls managed to advance the field. Yet the victory was uneven. Price pressed higher, broader units joined the march, and several formations moved into or near all-time high territory. However, volume and breadth still have not fully confirmed the advance with the force one would expect from a decisive campaign.

For the week, S&P 500 Capital Weighted Volume leaned defensive beneath the surface. Upside volume accounted for only 40% of activity, while downside volume led with 60% on average weekly volume. Capital flows told a similar story. Capital Weighted Dollar Volume finished above average on the week, but outflows were also above average and led average inflows by a 58% to 42% margin. In other words, price advanced, but capital commitment remained contested.

The older economy units led the new economy units. The brass commanders, represented by the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, surged 3.50% and finally broke loose to new highs with a strong price thrust. The troops, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, advanced 2.71%. The broader ranks, represented by the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, gained 2.49% and, after a month of sideways consolidation, finally broke out to new all-time highs. This was the last major unit to reach new terrain.

Meanwhile, the generals, represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1, advanced a more modest 1.21%, while the S&P 500 Index gained 0.88%. The generals mostly traded within last week’s doji range, suggesting leadership paused while the broader ranks carried the field forward.

This broadening of leadership is constructive and fits with this quarter’s theme of participation spreading beyond narrowing mega cap command. The rally is no longer solely dependent on the Nephilim generals. The troops, brass commanders, and equal weight ranks are now participating more meaningfully. Yet the volume profile still raises questions. Despite the S&P 500 closing higher, the accumulated trends of S&P 500 Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume drifted slightly lower. Volume still trails price rather than leading it, and that remains a tactical concern.

Market breadth improved after the NYSE Advance Decline Line neared trend support and bounced higher. However, it remains below the prior week’s high. Breadth has stabilized, but it has not yet reclaimed full command. The market’s ranks are expanding, but they have not yet marched in orderly formation.

The troops briefly broke beneath the support range created by the May 8th and May 15th spinning top formations, only to recover and close back within the upper range. That recovery was encouraging, but the brief breach suggests the front line remains vulnerable. The generals remain contained within last week’s doji range, awaiting clearer orders.  Conversely, after consolidating sideways for a month, the S&P 500 equal-weight RSP finally broke out to new all-time highs. This was the last unit to reach new territory. The dividend brass commanders also broke loose to new highs as well on a strong price thrust.

Cross asset signals remain unsettled under the shadow of the Iran war. Oil closed lower but remained inside the prior week’s range, suggesting the energy front is consolidating rather than collapsing. Gold and silver both traded lower but mostly remained within their broader ranges. The commodity scouts continue to move, but no decisive shofar has sounded from that front.

Overall, all major units marched higher on the week, and most are now either at or near all-time high territory. The bulls have advanced, but not all internal signals are saluting. Price has gained ground, leadership has broadened, and the older economy units have reentered the campaign. Yet breadth still lags, and volume continues to trail the price index.

In the spirit of And Then There Were None, the list of lagging units has narrowed, but the list of unresolved concerns has not disappeared. The bulls have taken more ground, but the supply lines remain under inspection.

Risk Command

This is not a bearish field report, but it is not an all clear signal either. Broadening leadership is constructive, especially with the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF and Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF breaking to new highs. However, when price advances while Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume weaken, discipline remains essential.

Investors should respect the rally, but avoid complacency. Position sizing, diversification, and support discipline remain critical. If breadth and volume rejoin the advance, the campaign can continue with stronger confirmation. If not, the old seasonal warning of “Sell in May and go away” may still find its voice. For now, the bulls remain in command, but they must continue to prove it.

Grace and peace,

BUFF DORMEIER, CMT

Updated: 5/26/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.