- 2026-04-13
- Posted by: kimsite
- Categories: Insights, Volume Analysis
CHIEF TECHNICAL ANALYST, BUFF DORMEIER, CMTⓇ
Put Up or Shut Up
In practical terms, the week began Wednesday, April 8th, with a decisive bullish gap higher in the S&P 500. The advance was supported by a 90% upside Capital Weighted Volume day on above average upside volume, though total volume remained only average. The rally delivered strong upside participation relative to downside, yet overall activity remained muted, with below-averagetotal volume.
For the week, upside Capital Weighted Volume dominated downside by roughly a 3 to 4 ratio, but again on below average volume. Upside volume has been slightly above average in recent weeks, while downside volume has remained notably weak. This suggests the rally has been driven more by a lack of sellers than by an abundance of demand.
Against the backdrop of the Iran conflict, cross-asset behavior continues to reflect a wartime rotation. Oil, which has been moving inversely to equities since the onset of the war, declined this week on slightly below average volume. Energy remains in a wide battlefield range between 80 and 120, with near-term support around 92. The lack of strong volume behind oil’s drop suggests that even this front is consolidating to support.
Structurally, the rally is now pressing into fortified resistance. The S&P 500 is approaching the 6950 to 6975 zone, a key defensive line. Market breadth has continued to build off last week’s breakout, but is now also nearing resistance, where prior advances have stalled
The generals, represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1, led the advance, gaining approximately 4.46% on the week. The troops, represented by IWM the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, followed closely, rising 3.98%. However, the broader ranks showed less enthusiasm. RSP, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF advanced 1.84%, while the brass commanders, represented by SCHD Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, finished the week flat. While price advanced, the number of command units driving the move were more limited. Participation is improving, but conviction was more selective.
In summary, neither side has delivered a decisive outcome but rather remain stuck in a sideways channel. The bulls have advanced, but not with sufficient force to break through entrenched resistance. The bears led a successful charge south but have thus far failed to break the upward trend.
The battlefield now centers on clearly defined levels. Resistance stands near RSP 200, IWM 165, QQQ 630, and S&P 500 6975, while oil support rests near 80. A weekly break of these levels would “prove it”, signaling that the bulls have finally “put up”. Failure at these levels would reinforce the view that this rally stuck in a directionless channel.
This is a classic “put up or shut up” moment. The rally has progressed, but it is running on fumes. Advances built on below-average volume are vulnerable, particularly as they approach resistance. Respect key levels, manage position size, and remain disciplined. In a market shaped by both war and rotation, lasting conviction may not be revealed by price alone, but by the capital conviction that stands behind it.
Grace and peace,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 4/13/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
