- 2023-12-27
- Posted by: kimsite
- Categories: Commentary, Insights, News
Click here to listen to the full interview.
EDWARD LAWRENCE: “So now, onto a man who is smarter than the average AI, Kingsview Asset Management’s CIO, Scott Martin. Scott, thank you for being here, and a happy New Year to you. So, what do you think about the New York Times pursuing OpenAI on Microsoft?”
SCOTT MARTIN: “Wow, pretty self-serving, pretty egregious. I love how Grady quoted some of that article or the write-up, talking about this massive investment that the New York Times has made in journalism. I don’t really recognize that these days as being part of the Times’ procedures, but certainly, it is just like even our own personal relationship, Edward, as we’ve done many shows together. There’ve been people that have stolen my jokes that I’ve put out there. There are people that repurpose things like that, like Kenny Banya did to Jerry Seinfeld in that sitcom, where he talks a lot of times about people taking other people’s materials and using it for something else. And to the point that you made as well with Grady, there is a purpose, or there is a portion of some of the things that the Times and other media outlets have put out that are for research purposes. Yes, maybe some stuff is taken verbatim, and maybe it’s repurposed and changed, but it does help others that are using AI, which, so far, AI, to me, has been delivering some decent things in terms of what it does for the people.”
LAWRENCE: “But do you feel like in 2024 there’s going to be a reckoning for AI? I mean, are investors still in that honeymoon phase that we see when a CEO mentions AI and their stock goes up? Or will there be some sort of reckoning?”
MARTIN: “It’s a great question. It feels like there’s a reckoning coming because things have been too good, to your point, in the AI space. I mean, companies, Edward, in the last few quarters that we’ve invested in, certainly and talked about on the shows, have just mentioned AI. Maybe they’re in fast food and they talk about AI, not that Taco Bell’s going to do that, but they should. It’s also like the AI thing has been a boon to all these companies’ stock prices. It’s probably not exactly what they’re intending to do, but it’s been kind of a good red herring, if you will, to get the stock price up. But also, companies that are actually seriously using AI, I mean, like I said, I’ve used the AI chatbots a lot, ChatGPT, Google Bard. Should I also sue the New York Times, Edward, if I got bad advice from the AI that told me to do things socially or economically that didn’t work out because the AI told me to do that? It must’ve been from the New York Times telling me to do that originally.”
LAWRENCE: “Well, Claude told me to have a great day after I talked with him. So let’s change subjects here. Last year, this week I sat here, you sat there. I asked you for a prediction, and what you say doesn’t go away. So listen to this. What has this last month told you about the state of the economy in 2023?”
MARTIN: “It’s fickle. There are a lot of ways this economy could go, Edward. What’s interesting to me is that the sentiment has totally turned on Wall Street and Main Street. Everybody’s talking about this recession that’s coming, which will be the most predicted recession in history. By the way, I like all the negative sentiment here because it tells me that a lot of folks have probably already taken off some positions. They’ve already handicapped their portfolios to expect this downturn, and therefore, I think those are times typically when the market actually rallies and recovers.”
LAWRENCE: “So our archives never go away, Scott, so the recession never came. Why do you think that the Dow is close to the sixth record high this year?”
MARTIN: “Because of exactly what we talked about, my man. I mean, it’s funny. Maybe you got that from the AI chatbot too, who told you, ‘Hey, here’s a good prediction of the recession,’ which is true when it’s always coming, Edward, when we always know when my mother is calling me and saying, ‘Hey, I’ve got a couple hundred bucks. Should I buy some stock?’ That’s when I get worried. But when she’s selling everything, then I know that it’s time to go in. So it’s somewhere now, Edward, where everybody’s saying one thing. All those bears, all those folks that were out there telling us that the recession’s coming, it’s going to be the worst downturn since the great financial crisis, yada yada yada. Groceries are so expensive. Look at what’s happening. Prices are coming down as far as groceries and things that we buy every day. Stock prices are going up. Your 401k is doing well now. Everybody, though, is getting a little bit too optimistic. So at some point early next year, we’re probably going to be talking and talking about how great things are. That’s the time you should run for the hills, but not now yet.”
LAWRENCE: “Well, and I want to ask you in the last 30 seconds that we have, give me a prediction then for one year from now.”
MARTIN: “One year from now, I think the markets are up. It depends on what happens next November because we’ve got some obscurity with the election, everything going on with the state Supreme Courts, and certainly who’s going to run on the Democratic side. I don’t think it’s going to be Joe Biden. So that could change the landscape a little bit. But overall, I think markets are starting to realize that the economy is getting back to itself. We’re getting out of this COVID malaise. We’re starting to get the government to step back in the election year, the third year of the election cycle, which we just finished, is usually the best one. The fourth year usually isn’t too bad. I think that’s going to show up as well. Companies are making money, they’re making margins, they’re turning profits, they’re paying shareholders back in dividends and other special payments. And therefore, I think that’s the reason that stocks are going up, and they will do as well.”
LAWRENCE: “Thanks, Scott, and I think our AIs will talk to each other a year from now. I appreciate it. Thank you very much for the insight. I hope so.
