- 2023-05-03
- Posted by: kimsite
- Categories: Commentary, Insights
Click here to listen to the full interview.
Program: Cavuto Coast to Coast
Date: 5/3/2023
Station: Fox Business News
Time: 12:00 PM
NEIL CAVUTO: All right. They say consensus is a very risky word in term, especially these days, but the consensus for what you think of it is that we’re an hour away from seeing maybe the last rate hike of this cycle and the year, a quarter-point hike at that. That would bring the Fed funds overnight bank lending rate to a range of between 5% and 5.25%. At least that’s the betting to Scott Martin, whether he buys the betting. What do you think, Scott?
SCOTT MARTIN: 25, probably in the basket, Neil. I’ll tell you what though, if you want to talk Jay Powell speak here and he wants to make a move, he wants to make a statement, Jay, listen to me right here. Don’t do anything. Don’t do anything. Just lay in wait. Check out a couple more data points. Just say we’re going to chill out. Let the market do the work because it is, Neil. Rates are plummeting. You’ve been talking about this with your esteemed guests all hour. The Fed is taking the hints from the market, hopefully, here. And Neil, maybe just taking a little pause here. That would be incredible and a way to make a nice statement for Powell and company.
CAVUTO: Now, you’re the expert. I play one on TV, Scott. But I’ll tell you something. There’s a put trade on any time Jerome Powell goes up to speak. Even if you go back in time and get his FOMC minutes meetings musings, six weeks after the fact, whatever rally we have is immediately quashed and whatever goodwill or happy thoughts were out there are hammered because he clarifies what was just done. Do you think that’s going to happen today?
MARTIN: Damn. I feel like you’re referencing times when I go up and speak at these luncheons and these dinners and everybody’s so excited and happy to be there. And then everybody hears me speak and open my mouth and they’re like, “What’s this guy?” Now, you’re right though. I would fade the move. I think you’re totally right. I think whatever this move is that we see that preempts these Fed meetings, Neil, you hit on the head. I mean, the last three meetings has been such where it just reverses course the next day. And so I think that’s one of those things where the market’s very noisy right now. There’s a lot of anticipation. There’s a lot of expectation, when in reality, the right thing to do is just back away, let things calm down, chill out, just take a break instead of have all this volatility and things going with all this speech and the followups and all the expectations that Powell’s going to talk about today in data coming down the road.
CAVUTO: So real quick, if he doesn’t signal any of the things you’re worried about, in other words that he’s not done or whatever, what then?
MARTIN: Market sells off, market says, “Dude, you got this wrong.” Rates continue to go down and try to tell him, “Look man, the market’s telling you, the data’s telling you, you got to back away. You got to let things work and let those rate hikes, all nine of them go through the system”.
CAVUTO: Yeah, and it would be 10 after today if that happens.
MARTIN: That’s right, a perfect 10.
CAVUTO: We’ll watch it. We’ll watch it very closely. Scott Martin, thank you very, very much.
