Program:  Making Money with Charles Payne
Date:  3/11/2022
Station:  Fox Business News
Time:  2:00PM

CHARLES PAYNE: I’ve got two of the best with me in studio, I in the studio. Scott Martin, Paul Shatz Let’s start with this Russian invasion, guys, because it’s really it seems to me it’s going to be tough for this market to get any traction until this. There’s some kind of closure there, Paul.

PAUL SCHATZ:  I don’t think any and first of all, it’s great to be back in person.

PAYNE: Are you?

SCHATZ: We’ll wait. I’m real like

SCOTT MARTIN: This is actually happening. No pinch me.

SCHATZ: I’m not sure. I think you have to have resolution on Russian Ukraine. Look, in 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait, stocks bottomed in October of 1990. Both didn’t fly until January of ninety one in 03. Yet a similar thing. I think people are taking their eye off the real ball. That’s the Fed we have to get by March 15 16. And regardless, except obviously a tactical nuke, but regardless of what’s going on in Ukraine and with Russia, I think once you get by the Fed, I think markets will feel a little bit of one. Even though we don’t think there’s any uncertainty, I still think there is some in the markets. Ultimately, the resolution should be the upside and swift in Q2.

PAYNE: What do you think?

MARTIN: I think Paul’s right. I think you got it. Well, it’s been what kind of risk you want to take, right? Because Paul, as you mentioned, there are times in history when the markets have rallied ahead of the all clear. And that’s that’s the opportunity, right, Charles. But there’s also investors like we have that don’t want to take that kind of risk or shot. But I agree that it’s just like the consumer sentiment number you mentioned. The worst that gets, the more bullish I’m getting because that means folks are selling their getting out. That’s putting in a bottom, in my opinion, and that’s when you get a jump in if you’ve got a long term.

PAYNE: Let me ask you about a potential for a recession, because that number today, every time it’s hit that number, we have had a recession. Yesterday, Janet Yellen said she’s confident the Fed is going to engineer a soft landing. How are you? What are you doing right now, Scott, in your portfolio vis-a-vis that? First of all, do you believe there’ll be a soft landing?

MARTIN: I hope. I mean, of course it doesn’t make.

PAYNE: Does it make a big difference in what you own in this market? Or whether you think that we can skirt a recession or if we go into one? It doesn’t make sense.

MARTIN: Not so much, Charles, because we will come out of that recession eventually and to handicap it, white saying, Hey, the recession starts in June, it starts in September, it ends in December. Who really knows? I wish I had the crystal ball. I smashed it like five years ago and didn’t buy another one. But the point is well said on your behalf, which is Janet Yellen’s to going to feed this market, the philosophy that’s going to make the market the most calm. I don’t know if she’s entirely realistic, but it does not change what we do, Charles, because we’re managing around the edges. You know, I’m a gold lover. We’ve been adding more gold here. We’ve been adding some energy, been trying to hedge out some of that equity risk and growth.

PAYNE: Also, some of the tools for public consumption, right? The administration trying to put the ball the inflation anywhere it can go. Oil companies pluton. You know, now it’s now it’s a fall or the responsibility of the Fed,

SCHATZ: As Alan Greenspan, who was the worst Fed chair ever, would have said they’re obfuscating the truth. Here’s a bottom line first, regarding the recession. If you looked at that chart closely right now, consumer sentiment is worse than it was in March of twenty twenty. It’s worse right now, right? The difference now is if you look at that chart, you’ll see when consumer sentiment plunged that much, you were already halfway into the recession.

MARTIN: Bingo.

SCHATZ: And to Scotty’s point, I don’t know whether we’ll actually get two negative quarters of GDP growth, but I don’t think we’re going to look back and say wow. Plus five percent GDP evaporated in the span of months. It just doesn’t happen.

PAYNE: So I was reading something yesterday. I thought it was amazing because it said only twice in history has the S&P been down this much. And there is still this many names above the 50 day moving average, right? Twenty three percent of the names above the 50 day moving average. And I’m thinking about this because every show I’ve done for like six months has talked about how many names are below the 50 or 200 day moving average. They’re saying there’s not enough capitulation that we need to go ahead. We need even more suffering. That’s like one of those Marvel comics guys. You know, like, I want to destroy the Earth. I mean, do we need more destruction in this market, Scott? That’s how you

MARTIN: That’s how you rebuild man. You destroy everything and you get more building back. I mean, but you only you would find a stat like that.

PAYNE: It blew my mind, like there’s not enough destruction.

MARTIN: Here’s the deal, though that number is significant if and only if we actually do have a recession coming or we do have a fed mistake because that could be something that just shows that this is maybe more of a nut, I guess not false bottom, a higher bottom than we think there may be where that could actually be a constructive number to say, Hey, look, we didn’t have a crazy washout. Things maybe weren’t as bad as we thought earnings were going to be better going forward. Therefore, you can construct let me

PAYNE: let me switch gears. I you want to get on this, but I want to. I want to also ask you guys about some different ideas before I let you go. And and so…

SCHATZ: We have to go?

MARTIN: We’re staying the hour.

PAYNE: But there are there are parting, parting prices. We got napkins, we got makeup removal

MARTIN: pens.

PAYNE: No more pens. So Deutsche Bank initiated coverage on a whole lot of tech names today and what they all had in common. They’re all down big time, they’re all getting hammered. TrimTabs says that there’s significant significant buying in tech right now, and the ratio to buying, you know, to long versus short is that is at the highest one. It’s been at 75 weeks. Paul, do you start to nibble here sometimes? Some of these tech names

SCHATZ: Hand on table bashing your fist on the table. You absolutely do. Look, we know we love to make fun of Wall Street for downgrading all these stocks after they’ve been down 80 percent. Give Deutsche Bank some props because they’re issued by signals after stocks were finally down. Insider buying in tech only is screaming. It’s not one company or two companies. It’s across the industry. These guys, men and women, they may be early, but they’re rarely ever wrong over the intermediate long term. The short answer is yes. Investors who can be nimble of should absolutely look for some of these beaten down names.

PAYNE: I mean, it’s hard, Scott, to imagine that this world does amazing work that we’ve been talking about. You know, that’s going to that’s going to materialize in front of our very eyes. All of a sudden, the opportunities that have evaporated, these stocks have gotten cheaper and maybe rightfully so right.

MARTIN: And things like evaporated because Putin went crazy and rode in on the high horse and thought he could take over Ukraine. I think it’s still riding horses, or that oil got to one 30 overnight. One night like that suddenly evaporated. To your point, all this enthusiasm, I don’t agree with it. I think Paul’s right nimble is a key word there, because I think nimble also means keep some dry powder for when the market screws up again and overreact to something else that happens. And you’ve got money to drop in if the market drops further, but they’re good long term names. He’s right.

PAYNE: All right, Paul Scott. Great seeing you guys to make sure you make sure you grab your makeup removal and way out.

MARTIN: I’m getting a tie.

PAYNE: All right now for greater insight.