- 2026-04-20
- Posted by: kimsite
- Categories: Insights, Volume Analysis
CHIEF TECHNICAL ANALYST, BUFF DORMEIER, CMTⓇ
The Bulls Put Up! Or Did the Bears Just Shut up???
This past week the S&P 500, along with several narrower formations, broke out to new all-time highs. On the surface, it appears the bulls have finally put up and the bears have shut up. The more important question is whether this was a decisive victory or simply an absence of resistance.
The campaign began with uncertainty. The week opened with a downside gap, only to reverse and close higher at the daily high, though on light volume. Tuesday and Wednesday followed through, with tax day delivering a 91% upside Capital Weighted Volume day, propelling the S&P 500 to new all-time highs. Friday reinforced the advance, closing at new daily and weekly highs with a 94% upside volume day on modestly higher Capital Weighted Volume.
On the week, S&P 500 Capital Weighted Upside Volume reached its highest weekly tally of 2026, while downside volume remained well below average. In total, 77% of capital flows were to the upside, and overall Capital Weighted Volume finished slightly above average. Although not decisive this marks a clear improvement from the prior week’s rally which lacked participation.
Across the formations, the generals, represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1, and the troops, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), both confirmed the breakout by achieving new all-time highs of their own. However, confirmation remains incomplete. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), the brass commanders represented by the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF(SCHD), and the NYSE Advance Decline Line all failed to confirm the breakout in the capital weighted index. Volume remained exceptionally light across all formations.
In the spirit of And Then There Were None, the breakout is being led by fewer formations than one would expect in a fully coordinated advance. Participation has improved, but leadership remains selective rather than universal.
More importantly, while this week’s volume was respectable, the broader rally off the recent lows has been built on relatively weak participation. The accumulated trends of Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume remain well below their prior peaks. While both trends are rising and remain intact, they continue to lag behind price. This suggests the rally may reflect a relief advance rather than one driven by sustained institutional conviction.
The geopolitical backdrop continues to influence the campaign. The ongoing conflict with Iran has introduced cross asset distortions. Oil, represented by NYMEX Brent, continued its decline on light volume, holding above the 80 level within the wide range established in the week of March 13th. The downward move lacks strong selling conviction, suggesting that even on the energy front, positioning is adjusting rather than capitulating.
Precious metals also participated in the advance, with both gold and silver moving higher alongside equities, though both remain within established ranges. Silver, represented by SLV, is now testing resistance near 74, an area that may determine whether momentum expands further.
Taken together, the battlefield presents a bullish but cautionary outcome. Price has broken out. Volume has improved. Yet participation remains uneven and conviction remains incomplete. The bulls have advanced, but the bears have seemingly disappeared as opposed to contesting ground.
Risk Command
Breakouts without strong broad confirmation require respect, not assumption. If participation expands and accumulated volume trends begin to confirm price, the advance may sustain. If not, the risk of reversal remains elevated.
Investors should remain disciplined. Focus on position sizing, respect key support levels (SPX 6950, IWM 165, QQQ 630) and require confirmation through volume and breadth before increasing exposure. In markets shaped by both war and rotation, conviction is not declared by price alone, but by the capital that follows. Overall, the question remains open. Did the bulls truly put up, or did the bears simply give up.
Grace and peace,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 4/20/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
