- 2024-05-06
- Posted by: kimsite
- Categories: Commentary, Insights, News
Click here to listen to the full interview
NEIL CAVUTO: Higher oil prices as a result, but don’t count Scott Martin among those who say that there is somehow a shift just hitting the fan. I had to practice that a number of times. Alright Scott, always good to have you. So what do you make of this? All of a sudden we have these worries, escalating war, the whole nine yards. Peter Eliades is coming up saying, get ready, it’s going to get bad. Where do you stand on this?
SCOTT MARTIN: It’s amazing when the shift does hit the fan, Neil, and the fan keeps spinning no matter what, even as the shift gets heavier. And that’s really what I think we need to remember as investors, it’s almost as dark as it gets. The dawn is coming, and that’s why I believe that as we may run out of a wall of worry to climb, as you mentioned earlier, the reality is that the market will build other walls to climb. So when we go through these geopolitical issues, when we go through these concerns about oil prices, concerns about the prices of things we buy at the store these days, the reality is the market will adjust, and the Federal Reserve knows what’s going on. I think this Federal Reserve, Neil, has engineered one of the most, let’s say, understudied or underappreciated soft landings in history, and therefore the market has a lot to build on here going forward. Provided that we just settle down a little bit and get through some of the volatile times that are upon us right here.
NEIL CAVUTO: It’s interesting, we were up a lot further early this morning. I know earnings have been coming in largely better than expected. We’ve also seen interest rates stabilize, at least market rates, and this view that with the slowing job growth picture we had last month, the Federal Reserve might be back on track for a cut this year. Do you think that’s still on?
SCOTT MARTIN: I think that’s bad news. I think a cut would not be good. And that’s the funny part about data and about investors and all of us alike, we forget that the times, Neil, when the market does best are times when the Fed’s out of the way, when we’re not talking about them, when we’re not counting on them for this monetary rescue that everybody is screaming about, that the market was clamoring for some months ago. When you and I are talking, my friend, and saying there were going to be six cuts, that was the prediction, and then four, then two, then hopefully zero. Because when the Fed’s out of the way and prices are stable, employment has been, let’s say, maximized, as per their mantra, that’s when the market can do its work, that’s when the economy can do its work, and if we get the Fed out of the way, which I believe we’re getting there, I think a couple more months after, especially the June meeting when they don’t do anything, I think the market’s going to realize that we’re in a sweet spot when it comes to the Federal Reserve interest rate policy.
NEIL CAVUTO: In an election year, particularly a presidential election year, it’s usually very good for the markets. This market has had a pretty good run. I know there’s a consensus building, I was reading, I think in the Wall Street Journal, that a lot of analysts still expect another 10% more of market gains by the end of this year. Are you in that camp?
SCOTT MARTIN: I am. I think those 10% gains are going to be a little more challenging to achieve, vis-a-vis the gains we’ve already had this year, which have been amazing. I mean, the market was going straight up basically from October of last year until the end of March. So certainly we’ve hit a little bit of troubled waters here, but I do believe, Neil, we’re going to get another 10 to 15% on your major market averages overall. But how that comes to us is going to be the challenge. So money managers, wealth managers like ourselves need to be somewhat strategic, somewhat tactical about how we get that next 10 to 15%. But it is coming, and therefore, you just have to kind of hang in there and wait for it. But also don’t get freaked out. We had a couple of weeks ago when we were talking on Fox Business several times about how these were buying opportunities, not opportunities to sell. When the market does pull back three, four, or 5% in a week, that’s actually a great long-term opportunity for a lot of investors to come in and reload their portfolio positions.
NEIL CAVUTO: Alright, thank you, my friend, very much Scott Martin on that. Uber bear Peter Aide has a slightly different view than Scott. Of course, he’ll be coming later on. Fair and balanced, as always, we always want you to hear both sides of the story.
