- 2026-03-23
- Posted by: Austin Pica
- Categories: Insights, Volume Analysis
CHIEF TECHNICAL ANALYST, BUFF DORMEIER, CMTⓇ
Put Up or Shut Up
The campaign opened with strength but ended with attrition.
Early in the week, the bulls mounted a decisive advance with 97% of Capital Weighted Volume to the upside, though participation remained slightly below average. By week’s end, control shifted sharply as the bears delivered a 96% downside day on heavy volume, marking a clear change in battlefield momentum.
Under the surface, the data confirms distribution is gaining ground. Capital Weighted Volume finished slightly above average, yet the composition deteriorated. Upside Volume remained well below average while Downside Volume expanded above average, resulting in 69% of weekly Capital Weighted Volume and Dollar Volume flowing to the downside. This represents a meaningful shift in control of capital flows.
The developing conflict with Iran continues to influence cross-asset behavior. Oil and equities remain on opposing trajectories. Energy has advanced rapidly, and notably, NYMEX volume inflows have now caught up with price, suggesting participation is confirming the move rather than chasing it. In battlefield terms, the energy front is now fully reinforced, while equities face sustained pressure.
From a structural perspective, the longer-term volume trend is now being tested. Both Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume have turned lower and are approaching their intermediate trend lines. This is a critical juncture. A decisive break would signal a confirmed “Volume Analysis correction”. However, these same trend lines have historically acted as defensive support where markets regroup and counterattack.
Breadth continues to weaken. The NYSE Advance Decline Line has broken trend and is approaching intermediate support, reflecting narrowing participation. Meanwhile, operating company breadth remains more resilient but is also losing altitude. The generals are no longer advancing with full support from the ranks.
Troop Movements
This week’s field report shows a broad-based retreat across nearly all formations.
The State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust declined -2.07%, reflecting pressure at the index level.
The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 fell -1.96%, giving back early week strength but still holding relative leadership vs peers.
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF declined -1.77%, continuing its retreat deeper into vulnerable territory as troops remain exposed.
The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF lost -1.57%, confirming weakening participation beneath the surface.
The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF declined -1.33%, holding up best but still surrendering ground as even the brass commanders begin to yield.
Despite early advances, all major units reversed course into week end. In And Then There Were None fashion, leadership continues to thin as one formation after another gives up ground.
Across the formations, pressure is building.
The generals, represented by Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1, finished lower and near their lows but continue to defend the 575 support zone. For now, command remains intact, though under pressure.
The troops, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, have already lost their footing. Having broken prior support, they continue to retreat toward major support near 230, approaching conditions consistent with a developing washout but not yet full capitulation.
The broader ranks, represented by the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, closed at yearly lows and slightly below 192 support, placing this formation in a vulnerable position where prior defense has now been breached.
Meanwhile, the brass commanders, represented by the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF, continue to show relative resilience. However, even here, gains are being surrendered as leadership consolidates rather than advances.
In the spirit of And Then There Were None, the list of advancing units continues to shrink. One by one, formations are losing support, leaving fewer participants capable of sustaining the broader campaign.
From a Volume Factor perspective, this environment aligns with VFGU Q1 themes. Markets are transitioning from expansion to a more selective and fragile phase where participation narrows and capital becomes more tactical. This is where volume confirmation becomes decisive.
Risk Command
The battlefield has reached a critical decision point.
If intermediate volume trends hold and support levels stabilize, the bulls retain a path to regroup and counterattack. If these levels fail, distribution is likely to accelerate as fewer units remain to carry the advance.
In this environment, discipline is essential. Investors should emphasize position sizing, respect for key support levels, and confirmation through volume before committing capital. Let volume lead and price confirm.
For now, the order stands. Hold the line where it matters or step aside. The market has entered its put up or shut up phase.
Grace and peace,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 3/23/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
