- 2026-03-16
- Posted by: kimsite
- Categories: Insights, Volume Analysis
CHIEF TECHNICAL ANALYST, BUFF DORMEIER, CMTⓇ
Put Up or Shut Up
Markets continue to navigate the fog of war as the conflict with Iran enters another week and investors attempt to determine whether the recent price deterioration represents temporary battlefield chaos or the early stages of deeper distribution.
This week’s volume statistics delivered a mixed but revealing set of signals. Monday opened with a decisive 89% upside volume day on average volume, suggesting buyers were willing to initially defend the field. However, the bulls quickly lost momentum as the week progressed. Two subsequent engagements produced a 94% downside day followed by an 89% downside day, both occurring on below-average volume.
Despite the dramatic price swings, the weekly flow statistics remain surprisingly balanced. Capital Weighted Volume finished the week with 53% to the upside on below average total volume. Capital Weighted Dollar Volume also leaned slightly positive with 51% being inflows on average weekly dollar activity. In short, while prices have deteriorated noticeably since the onset of the Iranian conflict, volume and capital flows that had been weakening prior to the war have surprisingly stabilized rather than collapsed.
Where deterioration is far more evident is market breadth. The NYSE Advance-Decline Line, once the shining light leading this bullish broadening campaign, suffered its worst week since the year began. Breadth has now surrendered most of the gains accumulated in all of 2026 and is now approaching critical support. This shift suggests that participation is indeed narrowing again, even as overall capital flows remain relatively balanced.
Among the fighting units, the battlefield conditions are becoming increasingly tactical. Last week the broader ranks took the heaviest fire with the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF falling -2.32%, followed by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF down -1.59%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust declined -1.38% while the Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 slipped only -1.05%. The most defensive unit once again proved to be the brass commanders with the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF falling the least at -0.96%
The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF RSP is approaching a critical defensive line near the 192 support range. The recent decline occurred on relatively weak volume, making this level particularly interesting from a volume-based perspective. Should this zone hold, it could represent an attractive intermediate entry point. A deeper defensive line sits near 180.
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF has slipped just beneath the 250 support level, placing the next intermediate defense near 230. Small caps are approaching short-term washout territory from a price perspective. Volume momentum is weakening but has not yet reached the kind of capitulation levels that often mark durable bottoms.
The Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1, remains the most resilient unit on the battlefield. Ironically, the generals had been weakening prior to the Iranian conflict but have since held up better than their peers. The generals continue to defend key support levels and appear technically positioned for a reflex rally should selling pressure subside. For more aggressive investors, this area may represent a potential counterattack zone.
Meanwhile, the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF is largely consolidating gains following its pre-war surge when the brass commanders led the field higher. After becoming temporarily overbought, the brass now appear to be regrouping rather than retreating.
Taken together, many of the market’s key formations are simultaneously approaching price support levels while volume indicators move closer to washout territory. This combination often marks important and inflection points where markets either stabilize and regroup or surrender additional ground. Put simply, the bears are entering a “put-up-or-shut-up” zone.
Risk Command
With multiple units approaching technical support while breadth weakens, the next move could prove decisive. If support holds and downside volume fails to expand materially, the current pullback may represent a war-driven shakeout rather than a structural breakdown. However, a decisive breach of support accompanied by expanding downside volume would suggest that distribution is gaining control of the battlefield. In uncertain environments like these, discipline, position sizing, and respect for support levels remain the investor’s strongest defensive tools.
Grace and peace,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 3/16/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
