- 2026-03-02
- Posted by: kimsite
- Categories: Insights, Volume Analysis
CHIEF TECHNICAL ANALYST, BUFF DORMEIER, CMTⓇ
Broadening Holds the Line as Supply Tests Conviction
The week unfolded as a tug of war between conviction and caution. Wednesday, February 25th, delivered a decisive 95% capital inflow day on average volume, signaling strong demand beneath the surface. That thrust was quickly challenged. Thursday produced an 85% outflow day on above average volume, followed by Friday’s 75% outflow session, also on above average volume. The sequence captured the tone of the week, advances met swiftly by organized supply.
For the full week, upside volume finished near average while downside volume registered above average. Roughly 51% of Capital Weighted Volume and capital flows tilted to the downside. In sum, the market reached a form of equilibrium, but on elevated activity. Buyers and sellers both showed up, neither fully conceding ground.
Among the fighting units, the troops, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, led the retreat, declining -1.21%. The generals, represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust, slipped a modest -0.25% but importantly held support near 600. The troops remain in a bounded pause, successfully defending the 255 zone. The belly of the market showed greater resilience. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF advanced 0.43%, and the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF added 0.51%. Meanwhile, the capital weighted S&P 500, represented by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, declined -0.50%, continuing the rotation away from narrow Mega Cap Nephilim leadership and reinforcing the broadening theme.
Last week we discussed the accumulated trends of both Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume testing critical support and the need for a rally to preserve short term control. After initially responding positively, both measures have now retreated back toward those support levels. They must hold this ground to maintain near term bullish posture. While short-term pressure has increased, both accumulated trends remain in rising intermediate formations, suggesting the longer campaign is not yet lost.
Market breadth continues to be the defining feature of this advance. The NYSE Advance–Decline Line recorded yet another weekly high, marking the fourth consecutive week of higher highs. This persistent expansion in participation underscores that capital is rotating rather than exiting. The ranks continue to widen even as headline indices consolidate.
In this environment, divergence defines the battlefield. The generals and troops may surrender small patches of ground, but the broader formation continues to advance. Such conditions align closely with the And Then There Were None dynamic, where former leaders yield dominance and participation redistributes across the ranks.
Risk Command
The market is neither breaking down nor breaking out. Supply is probing support while breadth expands. Investors should remain aligned with the broadening theme but exercise discipline around key levels. Respect 600 in the generals and 255 in the troops. Watch the behavior of accumulated volume at support. Should downside volume expand meaningfully, defensive posture may be warranted. If support holds and participation remains firm, rotation may continue constructively. In campaigns marked by divergence, survival depends not on speed but on discipline. And then there were none left without a plan.
Grace and peace,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 3/2/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
