- 2026-02-23
- Posted by: kimsite
- Categories: Insights, Volume Analysis
CHIEF TECHNICAL ANALYST, BUFF DORMEIER, CMTⓇ
It was a shortened week following the President’s Day holiday, weekly activity was light as typically expected in a four day week.. Even so, participation leaned constructive. Despite only four trading days, upside volume finished slightly above average. For the week, 68% of Capital Weighted Volume registered to the upside. The standout session came Wednesday, February 18th, when the bulls delivered a 95% upside Capital Weighted Volume day. That surge, however, occurred on lighter overall volume, suggesting enthusiasm without full logistical backing.
Tariff headlines dominated much of the week’s narrative fueling the generals to finally resume back command after a prolonged hiatus. The Invesco QQQ Trust advanced 1.14%, leading the field. The lieutenants, represented by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, followed closely, up 1.13%. The broader formation, represented by the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF, gained 0.60%, while the troops, represented by the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, rose 0.63%. The brass commanders, represented by the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF, paused after their recent surge, finishing the week unchanged.
Last week we noted that the accumulated trends of both Capital Weighted Volume and Capital Weighted Dollar Volume were testing critical support and needed to rally to preserve the intermediate uptrend. Encouragingly, both measures responded as the bulls hoped, bouncing off support to curl slightly higher. However, the follow-through of a higher is still required to move the short-term trend from neutral to up.
Market breadth continued its steady climb higher. The NYSE Advance–Decline Line closed at another all-time high, marking its third consecutive weekly record. This persistent expansion in participation remains consistent with Q1’s broadening theme. Capital appears to be reallocating rather than retreating, with gains spreading beyond narrow leadership.
The generals closed the week at their weekly high. However, February has thus far been characterized by a pattern of weekly lower QQQ highs and lower lows. A sustained breakout will require clearing that sequence. The troops remain in a sideways pause, consolidating gains rather than extending them. The equal weight index traded entirely within the prior week’s range, with the narrow band between 500 and 505 acting as short term support and resistance. Though the brass commanders finished flat, they registered a slightly higher low and a new intraweek high, reflecting continued intermediate strength.
On deck next week stands a pivotal report from Nvidia, the leading component within the Nephilim cohorts. While broader markets have advanced steadily since Thanksgiving, Nvidia has moved largely sideways. Its Volume Price Confirmation Indicator remains pinned near zero, offering no directional edge. Its Volume Momentum Indicator, often an early warning signal, remains inconclusive. Price momentum presently exceeds volume momentum, although volume momentum has begun to curl higher. The battlefield may receive clearer marching orders following earnings.
The campaign remains constructive but incomplete. Breadth continues to expand, leadership is rotating, and upside participation has improved. Yet lighter volume during advances and unresolved leadership consolidation counsel restraint. Investors should remain aligned with broadening strength while respecting short term support levels. Avoid overextension into headline driven momentum until volume confirms sustained thrust. In markets defined by rotation and selective advances, discipline and diversification remain the strongest defense. And then there were none left exposed without a plan.
Grace and peace,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT
Updated: 2/23/2026. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.
