CHIEF TECHNICAL ANALYST, BUFF DORMEIER, CMT^Ⓡ

After a strong surge off the bottom and a breakout into uncharted territory, the market’s major units took a slight tactical pause this past week to refresh. The stock market box, box, boxed, pulling into the pits for rubber and fuel, essentially taking a breather from its rally without coming to a full reversal. Over the last few sessions, capital inflows poured into equities with minimal outflows, providing fresh fuel to potentially strengthen the next leg of the charge. Like a well-coordinated pit crew swapping tires and topping off the tank, these inflows moved in decisively, shoring up momentum without jolting the system, even as prices posted a modest weekly decline. We believe this wasn’t a breakdown, rather a splash and dash, a strategic pause that may have refueled the engines and staged the markets for renewed acceleration.

The troops (IWM – iShares Russell 2000 ETF) retreated the furthest this week, down -0.65%, while the quality brass commanders (SCHD – Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF) largely held their ground, finishing nearly flat at -0.02%. Trading volume was light, and market breadth followed price action, drifting lower. Yet despite the price and breadth losses, trends in accumulated S&P 500 Capital Weighted Volume and Dollar Volume extended once again to new all-time highs. Notably, 67% of S&P 500 Capital Weighted Volume was to the upside. Despite the low overall volume, capital inflows were above average, with over five of every eight dollars flowing into equities. After swinging both higher and lower on the week, the troops closed on a doji pause, remaining trapped in their 210–230 trading range. Meanwhile, the generals (Invesco QQQ Trust) stayed within last week’s range, forming an inside week.

With capital now replenished and market internals tightening formation, this week’s action resembled a coordinated touch-and-go, a brief yet purposeful pause to recalibrate and prepare for possible continued flight. Inflows acted like a steady stream of jet fuel, keeping engines humming, while the near absence of outflows suggested strong commitment to the mission. Sector rotations and modest consolidation offered a tactical reset, not a retreat.

In aviation terms, the market returned briefly to base camp for a mid-air refueling, never fully disengaging but rather reinforcing its flight plan. Like a seasoned squadron regaining altitude after a check-in, equities remain airborne, mission-focused, and well-supplied for what could be the next leg of a longer campaign.

Grace and peace my friends,
BUFF DORMEIER, CMT®

Updated: 7/14/2025. Historical references do not assume that any prior market behavior will be duplicated. Past performance does not indicate future results. This material has been prepared by Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC. It is not, and should not, be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term. Investment advisory services offered through Kingsview Wealth Management, LLC (“KWM”), an SEC Registered Investment Adviser.